Running the Numbers

My marathon training is coming to a close, so I thought I would run some numbers.  This is a bit of nerded out run post, so I guess you can't say you weren't warned.

For whatever reason this year's training plan ended up including a lot of 12 mile runs.  My runs were usually 12.4 miles because of the routes available around my house.  I think that last run should of been 12.4 too (as it was the same path), but my garmin was a little wonky (ie I don't run through building despite the garmin reporting differently).  I'm sure there is some clever way to shave off that additional 0.4, but it doesn't seem like that would do much for me, so why bother.  I decided to include last years time too... just to show off the stark comparison.      

Date	Distance	Time	Pace
Aug 24th 2011	12.45 mi	2:39:32	12:48
Jul 7th 2012	12.40 mi	2:23:45	11:36
Aug 25th 2012	12.41 mi	2:24:40	11:39
Sep 9th 2012	12.42 mi	2:23:55	11:35
Sep 23rd 2012	12.32 mi	2:22:33	11:34

Other than an improvement from last year, I've been pretty consistent during these runs.   Holding withing a few seconds of 11:35, it's not a bad pace and quick enough to meet my overall goal of 5:12:22 (11:55 pace) for the full marathon. 

However, I've also participated in two half-marathons this year, where I ran a little faster.  Even though I'm a back of the back runner... I think the race mentality really gets to me!

Date	Race	Time	Pace
April 28th 2012	Get in Gear	2:28:32	11:19
Sep 1st 2012	Women's Rock	2:21:22	10:48

So I found this jazzed out race time predictor (http://www.mcmillanrunning.com/calculator)... 'scuse my nerdy cheer... but it's so cool!  It produces so many numbers it will make your head spin, or if you're like me you'll be tenting your fingers and saying "Excellent!" (Simpsons Reference)

McMillan's Predictions:

Get in Gear's time predicts a marathon of 5:12:37 

Women Rock's time predicts a marathon of 4:57:31  

I'm really curious about how this algorithm works.  I read about it in Marathon by Hal Higdon, and as I understand it took years of work to perfect.  I've somewhat assumed it to be the most accurate.    

However, there is also a race time predictor available at runner's world (http://www.runnersworld.com/cda/trainingcalculator), which is strictly based on a formula instead of a fancy algorithm.  I entered my race times on here too   

Runner's World Predictions. 

Get in Gear's time predicts a marathon of 5:09:41 

Women Rock's time predicts a marathon of 4:54:44  

Runner's World has me going a little faster... I guess we'll have to wait and see what's the most accurate.  

Let me be clear - these predictions make me happy! They all meet my goal (except for one which is 15 seconds shy :\).  However... 

The reality is these are just fancy algorithms and formulas.  Interesting in their science and valid in many ways, all calculations have breakdown at certain point.  For instance the Mcmillian gives me an ultra marathon prediction as well... but reality is it isn't something I could do unless I trained very very hard.  

My fair warning though is that last year, when I was messing around with race prediction widgets... and the numbers were not so kind as they are now; I did "better than predicted" - so if you use these "tools" realize that they are just that. 
_________________________________________________

What do you think of race prediction tools? 
I think they are fun and nerdy.  (What kind of Math Major would I be - if I didn't love numbers?) They give you a great idea of how you might perform, but shouldn't be trusted whole heartily